Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.**Recent Cairo talks among Palestinian factions, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey in early June 2026 represent the most recent diplomatic effort to advance Phase II of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan.** Phase II focuses on Hamas disarmament, establishment of a technocratic Palestinian administration (National Committee for the Administration of Gaza), Israeli withdrawal beyond the current “Yellow Line” buffer, and reconstruction under a Board of Peace framework announced in January 2026.
Implementation remains stalled over core disagreements: Israel conditions further steps on verifiable disarmament and has continued limited strikes and demolitions, while Hamas links any weapons handover to full Phase I compliance and withdrawal. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including reported Palestinian deaths exceeding 970 since the October 2025 truce, and Netanyahu’s description of the Phase II launch as largely symbolic underscore persistent implementation risks. Upcoming mediated sessions and any movement on disarmament timelines or aid flows could shift trader assessments of whether Phase II milestones are reached by the market’s resolution date.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
**Recent Cairo talks among Palestinian factions, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey in early June 2026 represent the most recent diplomatic effort to advance Phase II of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan.** Phase II focuses on Hamas disarmament, establishment of a technocratic Palestinian administration (National Committee for the Administration of Gaza), Israeli withdrawal beyond the current “Yellow Line” buffer, and reconstruction under a Board of Peace framework announced in January 2026.
Implementation remains stalled over core disagreements: Israel conditions further steps on verifiable disarmament and has continued limited strikes and demolitions, while Hamas links any weapons handover to full Phase I compliance and withdrawal. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including reported Palestinian deaths exceeding 970 since the October 2025 truce, and Netanyahu’s description of the Phase II launch as largely symbolic underscore persistent implementation risks. Upcoming mediated sessions and any movement on disarmament timelines or aid flows could shift trader assessments of whether Phase II milestones are reached by the market’s resolution date.
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Jun 29 2026
Board of Peace Finalizes Gaza Plans in Cyprus While Disarmament Remains Stalled
With the June 30 deadline only a day away, mediators acknowledged that disarmament talks remained completely stalled and that no breakthrough would occur before the Israeli fall elections.
Jun 27 2026
Leaked Draft Reveals Trump's Gaza Board of Peace Seeks Total Legal Immunity
June 30 dips to 1%1%
A leaked draft resolution showed the Board of Peace seeking sweeping legal immunity and free property in Gaza, highlighting the controversial and stalled nature of the transitional governance plans as the June 30 deadline neared.
Jun 9 2026
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire roadmap
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Hamas announced progress in multi-day talks in Cairo with Palestinian factions and mediators on implementing the ceasefire roadmap, including humanitarian aid delivery and Israeli withdrawal. Despite this, unresolved issues and ongoing ceasefire violations kept market confidence low for a Phase II deal by June 30.
Jun 1 2026
Trump's Board of Peace Stalls Out on Gaza Reconstruction and Disarmament
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Reports emerged that the U.S.-led peace plan was completely stalled due to deadlocked disarmament negotiations and lack of international funding, driving down expectations of a June 30 agreement.
May 30 2026
Hamas reports ongoing talks with mediators on second phase amid Israeli violations
June 30 dips to 4%1%
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem stated that while Hamas remains in contact with mediators to advance Phase II, Israeli military actions and political statements undermined progress, casting doubt on the likelihood of a Phase II agreement by the June 30 deadline.
May 29 2026
Netanyahu announces expansion of Israeli control in Gaza, Hamas condemns as ceasefire violation
June 30 rises to 13%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared plans to expand military control in Gaza from 53% to 70%, which Hamas condemned as a dangerous escalation and violation of the ceasefire, further undermining trust and prospects for Phase II agreement.
May 24 2026
Hamas accuses Israel of violating Gaza ceasefire with military strikes
June 30 dips to 11%1%
Hamas accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through recent strikes on residential areas in Gaza, exacerbating tensions and complicating efforts to advance Phase II of the ceasefire agreement.
May 15 2026
Israel and Hamas clash over delay of Gaza ceasefire Phase II after killing of senior Hamas commander
June 30 dips to 11%2%
Following the killing of senior Hamas commander Raed Saad by Israeli strikes, Hamas condemned the action as a ceasefire violation and called on mediators to pressure Israel, highlighting the stalled Phase II negotiations and increasing market pessimism about a deal by June 30.
May 10 2026
Israel declares ceasefire void if Hamas refuses disarmament
June 30 drops to 3%7%
A letter from the U.S.-backed Board of Peace warned that Israel would consider the October 2025 ceasefire null if Hamas does not disarm, linking reconstruction aid to demilitarization. This hardened Israeli stance and Hamas rejection of disarmament proposals stalled talks, negatively impacting market confidence in a Phase II agreement by June 30.
May 5 2026
Board of Peace Declares Israel Not Bound to Truce if Hamas Rejects Disarmament
June 30 dips to 9%4%
A leaked document revealed that the US-led Board of Peace would not hold Israel to the ceasefire terms if Hamas failed to accept the disarmament framework, driving market confidence to a low.
Apr 15 2026
US and Hamas Hold First Direct Talks Since Gaza Truce to Break Phase Two Logjam
June 30 surges to 30%17%
US advisor Aryeh Lightstone met with Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo to discuss disarmament and the next phase of the ceasefire, though talks remained stalled over sequencing.
Apr 13 2026
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Four in Gaza as Mediators Meet Hamas to Shore Up Ceasefire
June 30 drops to 14%12%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders, who reiterated that disarmament talks can only proceed after Phase 1 is fully realized.
Apr 5 2026
Hamas Armed Wing Rejects Disarmament Before Phase One Implementation
June 30 jumps to 26%10%
Hamas's armed wing publicly refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fully implements its Phase 1 commitments, creating a major roadblock for the transition to Phase 2.
Mar 26 2026
Board of Peace Submits Gradual Disarmament Plan for Hamas in Gaza
June 30 dips to 21%1%
Details of a plan by Board of Peace Director General Nickolay Mladenov were revealed, proposing a gradual, multi-phase disarmament of Hamas over an eight-month period to rescue the stalled ceasefire.
Mar 9 2026
Talks on Gaza peace plan frozen amid US-Israel war on Iran
June 30 rises to 26%1%
Negotiations to advance the Gaza peace plan, including Phase II ceasefire talks, were put on hold following joint US-Israel attacks on Iran that sparked a wider regional conflict. This freeze in talks further diminished the likelihood of a Phase II agreement by the market's resolution date.
Feb 28 2026
Gaza crossings closed amid escalating Iran conflict, aid restricted
June 30 dips to 24%2%
Following the outbreak of a broader Middle East war involving Iran, Israel closed all Gaza crossings citing security risks, severely restricting humanitarian aid and complicating ceasefire implementation. This regional escalation distracted from Gaza peace efforts and reduced chances of a Phase II deal.
Feb 27 2026
Gaza reconstruction efforts proceed amid unresolved security and governance issues
June 30 drops to 25%8%
The US-led Peace Council began technocratic governance and reconstruction efforts in Gaza, prioritizing rebuilding over disarmament. This sequencing raised concerns about normalizing security threats and constrained Israel's operational freedom, reducing market confidence in a Phase II ceasefire agreement.
Feb 26 2026
Israeli fire kills eight people in Gaza as truce deal staggers
June 30 dips to 26%1%
Israeli military actions and militant attacks continued despite the ceasefire, with casualties reported and both sides accusing each other of violations. This ongoing violence undermined confidence in the ceasefire's durability and the prospects for a Phase II agreement.
Feb 25 2026
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30 drops to 27%6%
Reports emerged that disagreements on Hamas disarmament were threatening progress on the Gaza peace plan's second phase, with Israel pushing for complete disarmament and threatening renewed war if unmet. This increased doubts about the feasibility of a Phase II ceasefire agreement by the deadline.
Feb 17 2026
Israel issues ultimatum to Hamas to surrender weapons before peace talks
June 30 drops to 31%11%
Israel aide Yossi Fuchs delivered a 60-day ultimatum to Hamas demanding full disarmament before the February 19 Board of Peace talks. Hamas rejected the demand, warning of catastrophic fallout if the truce breaks down. This hardened stance and rejection diminished hopes for a Phase II agreement, causing market decline.
Feb 10 2026
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, undermining Phase II hopes
June 30 drops to 36%5%
By February 10, 2026, Israeli military raids and strikes persisted in Gaza, killing hundreds and limiting humanitarian aid, which Palestinians described as a continuation of a genocidal status quo. This reality diminished expectations for a successful Phase II ceasefire agreement.
Feb 2 2026
Israel confirms no Turkish or Qatari troops will enter Gaza; retains security control
June 30 dips to 57%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed Israel's full security control over Gaza and rejected Turkish or Qatari troop deployments. This stance limited international mediation options and hindered progress toward a comprehensive Phase II ceasefire agreement.
Jan 30 2026
Israeli military adviser discusses proposed large camp for Palestinians in Rafah
June 30 drops to 61%10%
A retired Israeli brigadier-general publicly described plans for a large, security-controlled camp in Rafah to house Palestinian civilians, including monitored entry points. The proposal sparked criticism and concerns about Israeli control, complicating the political environment for Phase II negotiations.
Jan 27 2026
Israel Defense Forces strike Hezbollah operatives amid ceasefire fragility
June 30 jumps to 71%10%
IDF conducted targeted strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing regional security tensions. The continued instability and Hezbollah's rearming efforts contributed to doubts about the broader peace process, affecting market sentiment on Phase II.
Jan 20 2026
Israel issues final warning to Hamas to disarm within two months
June 30 plunges to 52%19%
Around January 20, 2026, Israel issued a 'final warning' demanding Hamas disarm within two months as part of the Phase II ceasefire conditions. This heightened tensions and skepticism about Hamas's willingness to comply, negatively impacting market confidence.
Jan 16 2026
US declares Phase II of Gaza ceasefire despite ongoing Israeli violations
June 30 dips to 63%3%
On January 16, 2026, the U.S. declared Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire, but reports indicated Israel had violated the ceasefire over 1,100 times since October 2025. This undermined confidence in the ceasefire's effectiveness and the likelihood of a comprehensive Phase II agreement.
Jan 14 2026
U.S. announces start of Phase II of Gaza ceasefire plan
On January 14-15, 2026, U.S. officials announced the formal start of Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire plan, including steps toward demilitarization and technocratic governance. However, Israel expressed reservations, citing security concerns and the need for Hamas disarmament, which tempered market optimism.
Jan 13 2026
Spain and Greece reaffirm support for full implementation of Gaza peace plan
June 30 surges to 66%33%
Spanish and Greek prime ministers publicly supported the US-backed Gaza peace plan and emphasized the need for rapid transition to Phase II, including Hamas disarmament. This international backing briefly boosted market optimism about the ceasefire's advancement.
Jan 7 2026
Human rights groups highlight Palestinian detainees' plight amid ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 34%29%
Reports emerged detailing the detention and ill-treatment of thousands of Palestinians by Israel, including administrative detentions without trial. These human rights concerns underscored ongoing tensions and humanitarian issues that complicated ceasefire progress and Phase II negotiations.
Dec 29 2025
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss stalled Gaza peace plan
June 30 jumps to 72%6%
On December 29, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss the stalled Gaza peace plan, a key moment that could influence the advancement or hardening of the ceasefire phases. This meeting raised hopes for progress, reflected in a price increase.
Dec 25 2025
Israel prepares for pivotal security meeting ahead of Netanyahu's US visit
June 30 surges to 73%23%
Israel announced a security cabinet meeting focusing on Gaza strategies and sought US support for annexing territory up to the 'Yellow Line' in Gaza. Netanyahu opposed Turkish involvement in the International Stabilization Force, signaling hardline positions that complicated Phase II negotiations. This contributed to market uncertainty about the ceasefire's advancement.
Dec 18 2025
Israel rotates military units in Gaza amid preparations for new ceasefire phase
June 30 surges to 73%23%
On December 18, 2025, the IDF announced the rotation of military brigades in Gaza as it prepared for a possible new phase of the ceasefire starting in early 2026. This indicated ongoing military presence and security concerns, affecting market confidence in a swift Phase II agreement.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.**Recent Cairo talks among Palestinian factions, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey in early June 2026 represent the most recent diplomatic effort to advance Phase II of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan.** Phase II focuses on Hamas disarmament, establishment of a technocratic Palestinian administration (National Committee for the Administration of Gaza), Israeli withdrawal beyond the current “Yellow Line” buffer, and reconstruction under a Board of Peace framework announced in January 2026.
Implementation remains stalled over core disagreements: Israel conditions further steps on verifiable disarmament and has continued limited strikes and demolitions, while Hamas links any weapons handover to full Phase I compliance and withdrawal. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including reported Palestinian deaths exceeding 970 since the October 2025 truce, and Netanyahu’s description of the Phase II launch as largely symbolic underscore persistent implementation risks. Upcoming mediated sessions and any movement on disarmament timelines or aid flows could shift trader assessments of whether Phase II milestones are reached by the market’s resolution date.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
**Recent Cairo talks among Palestinian factions, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey in early June 2026 represent the most recent diplomatic effort to advance Phase II of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan.** Phase II focuses on Hamas disarmament, establishment of a technocratic Palestinian administration (National Committee for the Administration of Gaza), Israeli withdrawal beyond the current “Yellow Line” buffer, and reconstruction under a Board of Peace framework announced in January 2026.
Implementation remains stalled over core disagreements: Israel conditions further steps on verifiable disarmament and has continued limited strikes and demolitions, while Hamas links any weapons handover to full Phase I compliance and withdrawal. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including reported Palestinian deaths exceeding 970 since the October 2025 truce, and Netanyahu’s description of the Phase II launch as largely symbolic underscore persistent implementation risks. Upcoming mediated sessions and any movement on disarmament timelines or aid flows could shift trader assessments of whether Phase II milestones are reached by the market’s resolution date.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
Jun 29 2026
Board of Peace Finalizes Gaza Plans in Cyprus While Disarmament Remains Stalled
With the June 30 deadline only a day away, mediators acknowledged that disarmament talks remained completely stalled and that no breakthrough would occur before the Israeli fall elections.
Jun 27 2026
Leaked Draft Reveals Trump's Gaza Board of Peace Seeks Total Legal Immunity
June 30 dips to 1%1%
A leaked draft resolution showed the Board of Peace seeking sweeping legal immunity and free property in Gaza, highlighting the controversial and stalled nature of the transitional governance plans as the June 30 deadline neared.
Jun 9 2026
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire roadmap
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Hamas announced progress in multi-day talks in Cairo with Palestinian factions and mediators on implementing the ceasefire roadmap, including humanitarian aid delivery and Israeli withdrawal. Despite this, unresolved issues and ongoing ceasefire violations kept market confidence low for a Phase II deal by June 30.
Jun 1 2026
Trump's Board of Peace Stalls Out on Gaza Reconstruction and Disarmament
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Reports emerged that the U.S.-led peace plan was completely stalled due to deadlocked disarmament negotiations and lack of international funding, driving down expectations of a June 30 agreement.
May 30 2026
Hamas reports ongoing talks with mediators on second phase amid Israeli violations
June 30 dips to 4%1%
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem stated that while Hamas remains in contact with mediators to advance Phase II, Israeli military actions and political statements undermined progress, casting doubt on the likelihood of a Phase II agreement by the June 30 deadline.
May 29 2026
Netanyahu announces expansion of Israeli control in Gaza, Hamas condemns as ceasefire violation
June 30 rises to 13%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared plans to expand military control in Gaza from 53% to 70%, which Hamas condemned as a dangerous escalation and violation of the ceasefire, further undermining trust and prospects for Phase II agreement.
May 24 2026
Hamas accuses Israel of violating Gaza ceasefire with military strikes
June 30 dips to 11%1%
Hamas accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through recent strikes on residential areas in Gaza, exacerbating tensions and complicating efforts to advance Phase II of the ceasefire agreement.
May 15 2026
Israel and Hamas clash over delay of Gaza ceasefire Phase II after killing of senior Hamas commander
June 30 dips to 11%2%
Following the killing of senior Hamas commander Raed Saad by Israeli strikes, Hamas condemned the action as a ceasefire violation and called on mediators to pressure Israel, highlighting the stalled Phase II negotiations and increasing market pessimism about a deal by June 30.
May 10 2026
Israel declares ceasefire void if Hamas refuses disarmament
June 30 drops to 3%7%
A letter from the U.S.-backed Board of Peace warned that Israel would consider the October 2025 ceasefire null if Hamas does not disarm, linking reconstruction aid to demilitarization. This hardened Israeli stance and Hamas rejection of disarmament proposals stalled talks, negatively impacting market confidence in a Phase II agreement by June 30.
May 5 2026
Board of Peace Declares Israel Not Bound to Truce if Hamas Rejects Disarmament
June 30 dips to 9%4%
A leaked document revealed that the US-led Board of Peace would not hold Israel to the ceasefire terms if Hamas failed to accept the disarmament framework, driving market confidence to a low.
Apr 15 2026
US and Hamas Hold First Direct Talks Since Gaza Truce to Break Phase Two Logjam
June 30 surges to 30%17%
US advisor Aryeh Lightstone met with Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo to discuss disarmament and the next phase of the ceasefire, though talks remained stalled over sequencing.
Apr 13 2026
Israeli Airstrikes Kill Four in Gaza as Mediators Meet Hamas to Shore Up Ceasefire
June 30 drops to 14%12%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders, who reiterated that disarmament talks can only proceed after Phase 1 is fully realized.
Apr 5 2026
Hamas Armed Wing Rejects Disarmament Before Phase One Implementation
June 30 jumps to 26%10%
Hamas's armed wing publicly refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fully implements its Phase 1 commitments, creating a major roadblock for the transition to Phase 2.
Mar 26 2026
Board of Peace Submits Gradual Disarmament Plan for Hamas in Gaza
June 30 dips to 21%1%
Details of a plan by Board of Peace Director General Nickolay Mladenov were revealed, proposing a gradual, multi-phase disarmament of Hamas over an eight-month period to rescue the stalled ceasefire.
Mar 9 2026
Talks on Gaza peace plan frozen amid US-Israel war on Iran
June 30 rises to 26%1%
Negotiations to advance the Gaza peace plan, including Phase II ceasefire talks, were put on hold following joint US-Israel attacks on Iran that sparked a wider regional conflict. This freeze in talks further diminished the likelihood of a Phase II agreement by the market's resolution date.
Feb 28 2026
Gaza crossings closed amid escalating Iran conflict, aid restricted
June 30 dips to 24%2%
Following the outbreak of a broader Middle East war involving Iran, Israel closed all Gaza crossings citing security risks, severely restricting humanitarian aid and complicating ceasefire implementation. This regional escalation distracted from Gaza peace efforts and reduced chances of a Phase II deal.
Feb 27 2026
Gaza reconstruction efforts proceed amid unresolved security and governance issues
June 30 drops to 25%8%
The US-led Peace Council began technocratic governance and reconstruction efforts in Gaza, prioritizing rebuilding over disarmament. This sequencing raised concerns about normalizing security threats and constrained Israel's operational freedom, reducing market confidence in a Phase II ceasefire agreement.
Feb 26 2026
Israeli fire kills eight people in Gaza as truce deal staggers
June 30 dips to 26%1%
Israeli military actions and militant attacks continued despite the ceasefire, with casualties reported and both sides accusing each other of violations. This ongoing violence undermined confidence in the ceasefire's durability and the prospects for a Phase II agreement.
Feb 25 2026
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30 drops to 27%6%
Reports emerged that disagreements on Hamas disarmament were threatening progress on the Gaza peace plan's second phase, with Israel pushing for complete disarmament and threatening renewed war if unmet. This increased doubts about the feasibility of a Phase II ceasefire agreement by the deadline.
Feb 17 2026
Israel issues ultimatum to Hamas to surrender weapons before peace talks
June 30 drops to 31%11%
Israel aide Yossi Fuchs delivered a 60-day ultimatum to Hamas demanding full disarmament before the February 19 Board of Peace talks. Hamas rejected the demand, warning of catastrophic fallout if the truce breaks down. This hardened stance and rejection diminished hopes for a Phase II agreement, causing market decline.
Feb 10 2026
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, undermining Phase II hopes
June 30 drops to 36%5%
By February 10, 2026, Israeli military raids and strikes persisted in Gaza, killing hundreds and limiting humanitarian aid, which Palestinians described as a continuation of a genocidal status quo. This reality diminished expectations for a successful Phase II ceasefire agreement.
Feb 2 2026
Israel confirms no Turkish or Qatari troops will enter Gaza; retains security control
June 30 dips to 57%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed Israel's full security control over Gaza and rejected Turkish or Qatari troop deployments. This stance limited international mediation options and hindered progress toward a comprehensive Phase II ceasefire agreement.
Jan 30 2026
Israeli military adviser discusses proposed large camp for Palestinians in Rafah
June 30 drops to 61%10%
A retired Israeli brigadier-general publicly described plans for a large, security-controlled camp in Rafah to house Palestinian civilians, including monitored entry points. The proposal sparked criticism and concerns about Israeli control, complicating the political environment for Phase II negotiations.
Jan 27 2026
Israel Defense Forces strike Hezbollah operatives amid ceasefire fragility
June 30 jumps to 71%10%
IDF conducted targeted strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing regional security tensions. The continued instability and Hezbollah's rearming efforts contributed to doubts about the broader peace process, affecting market sentiment on Phase II.
Jan 20 2026
Israel issues final warning to Hamas to disarm within two months
June 30 plunges to 52%19%
Around January 20, 2026, Israel issued a 'final warning' demanding Hamas disarm within two months as part of the Phase II ceasefire conditions. This heightened tensions and skepticism about Hamas's willingness to comply, negatively impacting market confidence.
Jan 16 2026
US declares Phase II of Gaza ceasefire despite ongoing Israeli violations
June 30 dips to 63%3%
On January 16, 2026, the U.S. declared Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire, but reports indicated Israel had violated the ceasefire over 1,100 times since October 2025. This undermined confidence in the ceasefire's effectiveness and the likelihood of a comprehensive Phase II agreement.
Jan 14 2026
U.S. announces start of Phase II of Gaza ceasefire plan
On January 14-15, 2026, U.S. officials announced the formal start of Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire plan, including steps toward demilitarization and technocratic governance. However, Israel expressed reservations, citing security concerns and the need for Hamas disarmament, which tempered market optimism.
Jan 13 2026
Spain and Greece reaffirm support for full implementation of Gaza peace plan
June 30 surges to 66%33%
Spanish and Greek prime ministers publicly supported the US-backed Gaza peace plan and emphasized the need for rapid transition to Phase II, including Hamas disarmament. This international backing briefly boosted market optimism about the ceasefire's advancement.
Jan 7 2026
Human rights groups highlight Palestinian detainees' plight amid ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 34%29%
Reports emerged detailing the detention and ill-treatment of thousands of Palestinians by Israel, including administrative detentions without trial. These human rights concerns underscored ongoing tensions and humanitarian issues that complicated ceasefire progress and Phase II negotiations.
Dec 29 2025
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss stalled Gaza peace plan
June 30 jumps to 72%6%
On December 29, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss the stalled Gaza peace plan, a key moment that could influence the advancement or hardening of the ceasefire phases. This meeting raised hopes for progress, reflected in a price increase.
Dec 25 2025
Israel prepares for pivotal security meeting ahead of Netanyahu's US visit
June 30 surges to 73%23%
Israel announced a security cabinet meeting focusing on Gaza strategies and sought US support for annexing territory up to the 'Yellow Line' in Gaza. Netanyahu opposed Turkish involvement in the International Stabilization Force, signaling hardline positions that complicated Phase II negotiations. This contributed to market uncertainty about the ceasefire's advancement.
Dec 18 2025
Israel rotates military units in Gaza amid preparations for new ceasefire phase
June 30 surges to 73%23%
On December 18, 2025, the IDF announced the rotation of military brigades in Gaza as it prepared for a possible new phase of the ceasefire starting in early 2026. This indicated ongoing military presence and security concerns, affecting market confidence in a swift Phase II agreement.
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"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" Polymarket पर 7 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, December 31 36% (36¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है, उसके बाद June 30 1% पर है।
आज तक, "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" ने कुल $2.8 million ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Oct 9, 2025 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।
"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 7 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।
"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" के लिए वर्तमान प्रबल दावेदार "December 31" 36% पर है। निकटतम परिणाम "June 30" 1% पर है। ये संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं जैसे-जैसे ट्रेडर शेयर खरीदते और बेचते हैं।
"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।
हाँ। सूचित रहने के लिए आपको ट्रेड करने की ज़रूरत नहीं है। यह पेज "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" के लिए लाइव ट्रैकर के रूप में काम करता है। नए ट्रेड आने पर परिणाम संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं। आप इस पेज को बुकमार्क कर सकते हैं और टिप्पणी अनुभाग में देख सकते हैं कि अन्य ट्रेडर क्या कह रहे हैं।
Polymarket की संभावनाएँ असली ट्रेडरों द्वारा अपने विश्वासों के पीछे असली पैसा लगाकर निर्धारित होती हैं, जो सटीक पूर्वानुमान सामने लाने की प्रवृत्ति रखती है। "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" पर $2.8 million ट्रेड होने के साथ, ये कीमतें हज़ारों प्रतिभागियों के सामूहिक ज्ञान और विश्वास को एकत्र करती हैं। उदाहरण के लिए, Polymarket का एक महीने का सटीकता स्कोर 94% है। Polymarket की पूर्वानुमान सटीकता पर नवीनतम आँकड़ों के लिए, सटीकता पेज Polymarket पर देखें।
"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" पर अपना पहला ट्रेड करने के लिए, एक मुफ़्त Polymarket अकाउंट के लिए साइन अप करें और क्रिप्टो, क्रेडिट या डेबिट कार्ड, या बैंक ट्रांसफ़र से फ़ंड करें। एक बार आपका अकाउंट फ़ंडेड हो जाने पर, इस पेज पर वापस आएँ, जिस परिणाम पर आप ट्रेड करना चाहते हैं उसे चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।
Polymarket पर, प्रत्येक परिणाम की कीमत बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाती है। "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" बाज़ार में "December 31" के लिए 36¢ की कीमत का मतलब है कि ट्रेडर सामूहिक रूप से मानते हैं कि "December 31" के सही परिणाम होने की लगभग 36% संभावना है। अगर आप 36¢ पर "हाँ" शेयर खरीदते हैं और परिणाम सही है, तो आपको प्रति शेयर $1.00 मिलता है — प्रति शेयर 64¢ का लाभ।
"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" बाज़ार Dec 30, 2026 को या उसके आसपास हल होने के लिए निर्धारित है। इसका मतलब है कि उस तिथि तक ट्रेडिंग खुली रहेगी और संभावनाएँ बदलती रहेंगी।
"Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" बाज़ार में 354 टिप्पणियों का एक सक्रिय समुदाय है जहाँ ट्रेडर अपना विश्लेषण साझा करते हैं, परिणामों पर बहस करते हैं, और ब्रेकिंग विकासों पर चर्चा करते हैं। अन्य प्रतिभागी क्या सोचते हैं पढ़ने के लिए नीचे टिप्पणी अनुभाग तक स्क्रॉल करें।
Polymarket दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा पूर्वानुमान बाज़ार है, जहाँ आप वास्तविक दुनिया की घटनाओं के अपने ज्ञान से सूचित रह सकते हैं और लाभ कमा सकते हैं। ट्रेडर राजनीति और चुनावों से लेकर क्रिप्टो, वित्त, खेल, तकनीक, और संस्कृति तक के विषयों पर परिणामों में शेयर खरीदते और बेचते हैं, जिसमें "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?" जैसे बाज़ार शामिल हैं।
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