**Constitutional amendment requirements create the primary barrier to repealing presidential term limits in 2026.** The 22nd Amendment's two-term limit can only be altered through a new amendment, needing two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states—a process that historically spans multiple years and demands broad bipartisan consensus rarely seen in recent Congresses. Recent developments reinforce trader expectations. Proposals such as H.J.Res.29, introduced in January 2025 to permit three terms under specific conditions, remain stalled in committee with no floor votes or state-level momentum reported through mid-2026. Public statements from President Trump have referenced possible "methods" for extended service but explicitly avoided testing constitutional boundaries or advancing repeal legislation. Discussions around term limits have instead centered on congressional reforms, with multiple resolutions targeting House and Senate service rather than the presidency. With implied probabilities above 90 percent against repeal, markets reflect the procedural timeline, slim legislative margins, and absence of scheduled catalysts like committee markups or state conventions capable of advancing an amendment before year-end. Rare scenarios that could shift odds include an unforeseen constitutional convention triggered by state applications or an extraordinary bipartisan agreement during a national crisis, though neither shows active indicators in current legislative tracking.