US foreign policy in 2026 lacks active executive actions, legislative proposals, or diplomatic initiatives aimed at territorial annexation, driving the 96.1% implied probability for “No.” Annexation requires congressional authorization, Senate treaty approval, or formal acquisition processes that remain absent amid priorities centered on appropriations, border security, alliances, and multilateral trade. Historical US expansion has typically occurred through purchase or treaty rather than unilateral claims, and recent public remarks on areas such as Greenland or Arctic claims have not advanced to binding agreements. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes before December 31 include sudden administration strategy changes, formal negotiations over disputed outposts, or major geopolitical realignments that produce completed sovereignty transfers within the resolution window.