Tensions stemming from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency have kept formal bilateral summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping off the table for nearly a year, with Beijing demanding a retraction and limiting high-level engagement. Japan has pursued lower-level contacts and economic channels while seeking protocol assurances ahead of the November 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen, where Takaichi will attend and a customary handshake or brief greeting remains under negotiation. Analysts view a full side meeting as unlikely at the event, though any direct interaction could qualify under market resolution criteria. Traders assign high implied probability to some qualifying encounter by year-end, reflecting expectations that diplomatic stabilization efforts will eventually produce at least minimal leader contact despite ongoing friction over security issues and regional posture.