Zohran Mamdani assumed the New York City mayoralty on January 1, 2026, following his 2025 election victory, and his four-year term runs through 2030. Recent developments, including a six-month management report highlighting service improvements, meetings with federal officials on housing and immigration, and hosting the Urban20 summit, show him actively engaged in governance with no procedural or institutional moves toward removal. Trader consensus at 97 percent against an early exit reflects the structural barriers in New York City’s charter, where mayors face no recall mechanism and departures before term end typically require resignation, incapacity, or extraordinary legal action. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health crisis, major ethics investigation, or unforeseen resignation tied to policy disputes with the state legislature or city council.