Recent Democratic midterm gains have elevated regulatory risks for AI data centers in key states, triggering a sharp November sell-off that sent Nvidia shares 22% below their October peak and the SOXX ETF nearly 40% off highs. These moves, combined with Jensen Huang’s November 12 resignation amid scandal, lifted Polymarket-implied odds of a defined bubble burst—requiring multiple triggers like 50% Nvidia declines or major bankruptcies—to roughly 12% by year-end and 19% by mid-2027. Traders are weighing sustained hyperscaler capex exceeding cash flow against still-rising large language model revenues and competitive pressure from open-source alternatives. Key near-term catalysts include state-level moratorium votes and Q4 earnings that could clarify whether infrastructure spending is translating into profitable adoption.