Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Alaska’s 2026 gubernatorial race under ranked-choice voting because the Republican primary splintered the GOP vote among Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor, while the second-place Democrat withdrew and endorsed him. His 22.5% primary finish, moderate independent running mate, and late-September $650,000 Democratic Governors Association independent expenditure have reinforced trader pricing. Recent AARP and Siena polling shows him ahead on initial ballots and prevailing in simulated RCV matchups against Wilson, the strongest Republican, amid voter focus on costs, energy, and schools. The absence of GOP consolidation and structural advantages in the November 3 general election have kept other listed candidates at minimal implied probabilities.