The two-party system's structural advantages, including superior fundraising, ballot access, and voter registration patterns, continue to limit independent congressional victories, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward zero new independents elected in 2026. Over 200 independent candidates have filed across House and Senate races, with notable efforts in states like Nebraska, Idaho, Montana, and Alaska, yet most face major-party opponents in districts rated as safe or lean partisan by analysts. Betting markets price even the strongest independent contenders as long shots, consistent with historical patterns where unaffiliated candidates rarely secure general-election wins. The November 3 election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts absent major developments in key battlegrounds.