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Politik·Rumah Perwakilan

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

icon for Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Politik·Rumah Perwakilan

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 77%

Mike Johnson 17.4%

Pete Aguilar 16.0%

Jim Jordan 6.0%

Polymarket
BARU

Hakeem Jeffries 77%

Mike Johnson 17.4%

Pete Aguilar 16.0%

Jim Jordan 6.0%

Polymarket
BARU
icon for Hakeem Jeffries

Hakeem Jeffries

$1,356 Vol.

75%

icon for Katherine Clark

Katherine Clark

$55 Vol.

5%

icon for Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar

$65 Vol.

16%

icon for Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan

$88 Vol.

6%

icon for Steve Scalise

Steve Scalise

$55 Vol.

4%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$65 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hakeem Jeffries at 80% implied probability to become Speaker after the 2026 midterms, reflecting strong expectations of Democrats flipping the narrow Republican House majority amid persistent generic ballot leads and President Trump's declining approval ratings. As House Minority Leader, Jeffries would assume the role if Democrats secure a majority, with no notable intraparty challengers like Pete Aguilar or Katherine Clark emerging. Current Speaker Mike Johnson trails at 10.4%, buoyed by recent redistricting gains—such as Virginia's Supreme Court rejection of a Democratic map on May 13—tightening forecasts from outlets like Sabato's Crystal Ball (Republicans 211, Democrats 208, 16 toss-ups) but failing to overcome historical midterm penalties for the president's party. GOP alternatives like Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise linger at low odds amid party divisions. Primaries and further map fights could shift dynamics before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,683
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 3, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Hakeem Jeffries at 80% implied probability to become Speaker after the 2026 midterms, reflecting strong expectations of Democrats flipping the narrow Republican House majority amid persistent generic ballot leads and President Trump's declining approval ratings. As House Minority Leader, Jeffries would assume the role if Democrats secure a majority, with no notable intraparty challengers like Pete Aguilar or Katherine Clark emerging. Current Speaker Mike Johnson trails at 10.4%, buoyed by recent redistricting gains—such as Virginia's Supreme Court rejection of a Democratic map on May 13—tightening forecasts from outlets like Sabato's Crystal Ball (Republicans 211, Democrats 208, 16 toss-ups) but failing to overcome historical midterm penalties for the president's party. GOP alternatives like Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise linger at low odds amid party divisions. Primaries and further map fights could shift dynamics before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,683
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 3, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Hakeem Jeffries" di 75%, diikuti oleh "Mike Johnson" di 17%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 75¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 75% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 8, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Speaker of the House after the midterms?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" adalah "Hakeem Jeffries" di 75%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 75% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Mike Johnson" di 17%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.