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Politik·Rumah Perwakilan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politik·Rumah Perwakilan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 84%

Melissa Hernandez 14.4%

Carin Elam <1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket

$24,505 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 84%

Melissa Hernandez 14.4%

Carin Elam <1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket

$24,505 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$16,272 Vol.

84%

Melissa Hernandez

$2,411 Vol.

14%

Wendy Huang

$1,320 Vol.

1%

Carin Elam

$826 Vol.

1%

Matt Ortega

$1,034 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,711 Vol.

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$930 Vol.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$24,505
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$24,505
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Terkait

icon for Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?

Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?

87%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the CA-14 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-14 House seat?

96%
icon for Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?

Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?

89%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Aisha Wahab" di 84%, diikuti oleh "Melissa Hernandez" di 14%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 84¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" telah menghasilkan $24.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah "Aisha Wahab" di 84%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Melissa Hernandez" di 14%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.