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Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 95%

Melissa Hernandez 2.6%

Rakhi Israni Singh 1.1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket
BARU

Aisha Wahab 95%

Melissa Hernandez 2.6%

Rakhi Israni Singh 1.1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket
BARU

Aisha Wahab

$1,978 Vol.

95%

Melissa Hernandez

$440 Vol.

3%

Wendy Huang

$731 Vol.

1%

Carin Elam

$394 Vol.

<1%

Matt Ortega

$579 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$935 Vol.

1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$503 Vol.

1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab’s commanding position in the CA-14 special election market stems from her decisive lead in the June 16 top-two primary, where she captured the largest share of votes in the heavily Democratic East Bay district vacated by Eric Swalwell. As a sitting state senator with party endorsement and strong name recognition, Wahab advanced to the August 18 runoff against likely challenger Melissa Hernandez. Traders assign her over 90 percent implied probability because the district’s partisan composition and her primary performance align with historical patterns for Democratic nominees in similar open seats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a dramatic shift in runoff turnout, late-breaking campaign developments, or unforeseen changes in voter preferences between the two Democrats, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$5,560
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab’s commanding position in the CA-14 special election market stems from her decisive lead in the June 16 top-two primary, where she captured the largest share of votes in the heavily Democratic East Bay district vacated by Eric Swalwell. As a sitting state senator with party endorsement and strong name recognition, Wahab advanced to the August 18 runoff against likely challenger Melissa Hernandez. Traders assign her over 90 percent implied probability because the district’s partisan composition and her primary performance align with historical patterns for Democratic nominees in similar open seats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a dramatic shift in runoff turnout, late-breaking campaign developments, or unforeseen changes in voter preferences between the two Democrats, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$5,560
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Aisha Wahab" di 95%, diikuti oleh "Melissa Hernandez" di 3%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 95¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 95% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 16, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah "Aisha Wahab" di 95%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 95% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Melissa Hernandez" di 3%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.