Republicans hold a narrow House majority of roughly 217-212 seats amid five vacancies, creating a thin buffer that has so far withstood recent special elections and member departures. Recent court rulings in Virginia and a Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act have strengthened Republican redistricting advantages for the November 2026 midterms, while scheduled specials through mid-year offer Democrats few realistic paths to net the seats needed for an earlier flip. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to Republicans retaining control through Election Day because historical patterns show such pre-midterm majority shifts are rare without widespread vacancies or unexpected resignations, none of which have materialized at scale.