Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in California’s open-seat gubernatorial contest, with recent polls showing the Democrat ahead by 18–22 points among likely voters. The state’s partisan registration advantage, strong Democratic support in coastal and urban areas, and independent voter preferences sustain Becerra’s position heading into the November 3 election. Hilton’s emphasis on affordability, cost of living, and policy reversals resonates more in the Central Valley and with Republican base voters, yet these factors have not narrowed the overall gap. An upcoming September 30 debate and final campaign messaging on economic issues could influence turnout or undecided voters, potentially shifting the final margin within the ranges traders are pricing. The market’s balanced top outcomes reflect uncertainty around the precise spread rather than the likely winner.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCalifornia Governor Election Margin of Victory
California Governor Election Margin of Victory
Becerra 20-25% 21%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 16.3%
Becerra 40%+ 13%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
13%
Becerra 35-40%
5%
Becerra 30-35%
9%
Becerra 25-30%
16%
Becerra 20-25%
21%
Becerra 15-20%
19%
Becerra 10-15%
11%
Becerra 0-10%
2%
Hilton Wins
<1%
Becerra 20-25% 21%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 16.3%
Becerra 40%+ 13%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
$715 Vol.
13%
Becerra 35-40%
$303 Vol.
5%
Becerra 30-35%
$195 Vol.
9%
Becerra 25-30%
$509 Vol.
16%
Becerra 20-25%
$829 Vol.
21%
Becerra 15-20%
$856 Vol.
19%
Becerra 10-15%
$270 Vol.
11%
Becerra 0-10%
$171 Vol.
2%
Hilton Wins
$193 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in California’s open-seat gubernatorial contest, with recent polls showing the Democrat ahead by 18–22 points among likely voters. The state’s partisan registration advantage, strong Democratic support in coastal and urban areas, and independent voter preferences sustain Becerra’s position heading into the November 3 election. Hilton’s emphasis on affordability, cost of living, and policy reversals resonates more in the Central Valley and with Republican base voters, yet these factors have not narrowed the overall gap. An upcoming September 30 debate and final campaign messaging on economic issues could influence turnout or undecided voters, potentially shifting the final margin within the ranges traders are pricing. The market’s balanced top outcomes reflect uncertainty around the precise spread rather than the likely winner.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$4,041Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in California’s open-seat gubernatorial contest, with recent polls showing the Democrat ahead by 18–22 points among likely voters. The state’s partisan registration advantage, strong Democratic support in coastal and urban areas, and independent voter preferences sustain Becerra’s position heading into the November 3 election. Hilton’s emphasis on affordability, cost of living, and policy reversals resonates more in the Central Valley and with Republican base voters, yet these factors have not narrowed the overall gap. An upcoming September 30 debate and final campaign messaging on economic issues could influence turnout or undecided voters, potentially shifting the final margin within the ranges traders are pricing. The market’s balanced top outcomes reflect uncertainty around the precise spread rather than the likely winner.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,041Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in California’s open-seat gubernatorial contest, with recent polls showing the Democrat ahead by 18–22 points among likely voters. The state’s partisan registration advantage, strong Democratic support in coastal and urban areas, and independent voter preferences sustain Becerra’s position heading into the November 3 election. Hilton’s emphasis on affordability, cost of living, and policy reversals resonates more in the Central Valley and with Republican base voters, yet these factors have not narrowed the overall gap. An upcoming September 30 debate and final campaign messaging on economic issues could influence turnout or undecided voters, potentially shifting the final margin within the ranges traders are pricing. The market’s balanced top outcomes reflect uncertainty around the precise spread rather than the likely winner.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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