A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
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Jul 10 2026
Tendring District Council Sets Official Date for Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage rises to 91%1%
The official date for the Clacton parliamentary by-election was set, establishing the final timeline for the market's resolution.
Jul 9 2026
Parliamentary Writ Moved to Formally Trigger Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage rises to 91%1%
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson moved the writ in the House of Commons, officially triggering the by-election with a likely polling date of August 13.
Jul 9 2026
Clacton By-Election Writ Formally Moved in House of Commons
The writ to officially trigger the by-election was moved by Reform UK MP Lee Anderson, setting up a likely polling date of August 13.
Jul 9 2026
Writ Moved in Commons to Formally Trigger Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage rises to 91%1%
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson moved the writ in the House of Commons, officially initiating the by-election process and solidifying the timeline.
Jul 8 2026
Treasury Confirms Acceptance of Nigel Farage's Resignation
Nigel Farage dips to 90%3%
Chancellor Rachel Reeves formally accepted Nigel Farage's resignation, officially vacating the Clacton seat and clearing the path for the by-election.
Jul 8 2026
Count Binface Campaign Gains Momentum with Surge in Donations
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Count Binface received a massive wave of support and raised over £15,000 in a single day, solidifying his position as the main anti-Farage candidate.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves formally approved Farage's resignation, officially vacating the Clacton seat and clearing the path for the by-election.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Tony Mack Declines to Run in Clacton By-Election
Tony Mack dips to 0%1%
Former Reform candidate Tony Mack announced he would not stand in the by-election, calling Farage's resignation a 'cynical ploy' and dropping his market odds to zero.
Jul 8 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as main challenger to Nigel Farage in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, known as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only confirmed opponent to Farage. His candidacy led to a modest increase in his market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 8 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger and consolidated Farage's position.
Jul 8 2026
Count Binface Confirms He Will Stand Against Nigel Farage in Clacton
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Satirical candidate Count Binface announced his candidacy, positioning himself as the primary challenger to Farage following the major party boycott.
Jul 8 2026
Nigel Farage's Resignation Formally Accepted by Chancellor
Nigel Farage dips to 90%3%
Nigel Farage formally vacated his seat on Wednesday after being appointed to the procedural office of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Jul 8 2026
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface Declares Candidacy for Clacton By-Election
Count Binface rises to 6%2%
Following the boycott by major parties, satirical candidate Count Binface announced his intention to stand against Nigel Farage, immediately becoming the primary challenger.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage Resigns as Clacton MP to Trigger By-Election
Nigel Farage jumps to 96%9%
Nigel Farage announced his resignation as MP for Clacton to trigger a by-election, framing it as a public vote of confidence amid parliamentary scrutiny over his finances.
Jul 7 2026
Giles Watling Odds Collapse Following Conservative Boycott Decision
Giles Watling plunges to 1%36%
Former Conservative MP Giles Watling's odds of winning collapsed to near zero after the Conservative Party leadership ruled out contesting the seat.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage Resigns as MP for Clacton to Trigger By-Election
Nigel Farage jumps to 97%10%
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced his resignation as MP for Clacton to force a by-election, framing the contest as a 'people versus the establishment' vote to clear his name amid financial scrutiny.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election, leaving Farage facing only Count Binface
Nigel Farage rises to 91%4%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all announced they would not field candidates in the by-election, effectively leaving Farage's only significant opponent as the satirical candidate Count Binface. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Major UK Political Parties Announce Boycott of Clacton By-Election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 1%43%
Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens all ruled out contesting the by-election, calling Farage's move a 'desperate stunt' and collapsing their candidates' odds to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface Confirms Candidacy in Clacton By-Election
Count Binface rises to 6%2%
Satirical candidate Count Binface announced he would stand in the by-election, positioning himself as the primary challenger to Farage following the major party boycott.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
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Jul 10 2026
Tendring District Council Sets Official Date for Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage rises to 91%1%
The official date for the Clacton parliamentary by-election was set, establishing the final timeline for the market's resolution.
Jul 9 2026
Parliamentary Writ Moved to Formally Trigger Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage rises to 91%1%
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson moved the writ in the House of Commons, officially triggering the by-election with a likely polling date of August 13.
Jul 9 2026
Clacton By-Election Writ Formally Moved in House of Commons
The writ to officially trigger the by-election was moved by Reform UK MP Lee Anderson, setting up a likely polling date of August 13.
Jul 9 2026
Writ Moved in Commons to Formally Trigger Clacton By-Election
Nigel Farage rises to 91%1%
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson moved the writ in the House of Commons, officially initiating the by-election process and solidifying the timeline.
Jul 8 2026
Treasury Confirms Acceptance of Nigel Farage's Resignation
Nigel Farage dips to 90%3%
Chancellor Rachel Reeves formally accepted Nigel Farage's resignation, officially vacating the Clacton seat and clearing the path for the by-election.
Jul 8 2026
Count Binface Campaign Gains Momentum with Surge in Donations
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Count Binface received a massive wave of support and raised over £15,000 in a single day, solidifying his position as the main anti-Farage candidate.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves formally approved Farage's resignation, officially vacating the Clacton seat and clearing the path for the by-election.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Tony Mack Declines to Run in Clacton By-Election
Tony Mack dips to 0%1%
Former Reform candidate Tony Mack announced he would not stand in the by-election, calling Farage's resignation a 'cynical ploy' and dropping his market odds to zero.
Jul 8 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as main challenger to Nigel Farage in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, known as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only confirmed opponent to Farage. His candidacy led to a modest increase in his market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 8 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger and consolidated Farage's position.
Jul 8 2026
Count Binface Confirms He Will Stand Against Nigel Farage in Clacton
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Satirical candidate Count Binface announced his candidacy, positioning himself as the primary challenger to Farage following the major party boycott.
Jul 8 2026
Nigel Farage's Resignation Formally Accepted by Chancellor
Nigel Farage dips to 90%3%
Nigel Farage formally vacated his seat on Wednesday after being appointed to the procedural office of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Jul 8 2026
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface Declares Candidacy for Clacton By-Election
Count Binface rises to 6%2%
Following the boycott by major parties, satirical candidate Count Binface announced his intention to stand against Nigel Farage, immediately becoming the primary challenger.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage Resigns as Clacton MP to Trigger By-Election
Nigel Farage jumps to 96%9%
Nigel Farage announced his resignation as MP for Clacton to trigger a by-election, framing it as a public vote of confidence amid parliamentary scrutiny over his finances.
Jul 7 2026
Giles Watling Odds Collapse Following Conservative Boycott Decision
Giles Watling plunges to 1%36%
Former Conservative MP Giles Watling's odds of winning collapsed to near zero after the Conservative Party leadership ruled out contesting the seat.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage Resigns as MP for Clacton to Trigger By-Election
Nigel Farage jumps to 97%10%
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced his resignation as MP for Clacton to force a by-election, framing the contest as a 'people versus the establishment' vote to clear his name amid financial scrutiny.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election, leaving Farage facing only Count Binface
Nigel Farage rises to 91%4%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all announced they would not field candidates in the by-election, effectively leaving Farage's only significant opponent as the satirical candidate Count Binface. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Major UK Political Parties Announce Boycott of Clacton By-Election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 1%43%
Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens all ruled out contesting the by-election, calling Farage's move a 'desperate stunt' and collapsing their candidates' odds to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface Confirms Candidacy in Clacton By-Election
Count Binface rises to 6%2%
Satirical candidate Count Binface announced he would stand in the by-election, positioning himself as the primary challenger to Farage following the major party boycott.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Clacton by-election Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Nigel Farage" di 91%, diikuti oleh "Count Binface" di 7%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 91¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 91% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Clacton by-election Winner" telah menghasilkan $1.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 7, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Clacton by-election Winner," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Clacton by-election Winner" adalah "Nigel Farage" di 91%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 91% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Count Binface" di 7%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Clacton by-election Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Clacton by-election Winner." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $1.4 million diperdagangkan pada "Clacton by-election Winner," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Clacton by-election Winner," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 91¢ untuk "Nigel Farage" di pasar "Clacton by-election Winner" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 91% bahwa "Nigel Farage" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 91¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 9¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "Clacton by-election Winner" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar Jun 30, 2027. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "Clacton by-election Winner" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 50 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Clacton by-election Winner." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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