The absence of any hantavirus vaccine candidate that has completed Phase 3 trials or entered late-stage efficacy testing underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability of no licensed product in 2026. Current efforts, including Moderna’s mRNA candidate with Korea University and DNA-based platforms that reached only small Phase 1 studies, remain in preclinical or early human testing, with standard regulatory timelines projecting five to ten years even under accelerated conditions. Recent Andes virus cases from the May 2026 cruise-ship outbreak have increased research visibility and prompted calls for added funding, yet they have not altered the fundamental requirement for extensive safety data and large-scale efficacy confirmation. An unprecedented federal initiative comparable to Operation Warp Speed or rapid emergency-use authorization could theoretically compress the schedule, but historical precedents and current pipeline status make such a shift improbable before year-end.