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icon for CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

icon for CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

12% peluang
Polymarket

$71,968 Vol.

12% peluang
Polymarket

$71,968 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice appears imminent by year-end, supporting the 75% market-implied probability.** CDC Level 4 notices, which advise avoiding all travel due to extreme health risks with no effective precautions, remain unused as of mid-June 2026. Current notices top out at Level 2 for circulating poliovirus (updated March 2026 to include Laos and Namibia) and select Level 1 alerts for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, and global measles. These reflect ongoing but contained transmission patterns monitored by CDC surveillance, without the uncontrolled outbreaks or novel pathogens that historically trigger Level 4 status, such as peak COVID-19 surges. No recent model runs, case thresholds, or official CDC/NOAA-style escalations point to conditions that would meet Level 4 criteria—extreme risk without mitigation options—before December 31. Traders appear to weigh the low baseline likelihood of rapid escalation against routine seasonal and endemic activity, with upcoming surveillance updates unlikely to shift this assessment absent a major emergence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,968
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice appears imminent by year-end, supporting the 75% market-implied probability.** CDC Level 4 notices, which advise avoiding all travel due to extreme health risks with no effective precautions, remain unused as of mid-June 2026. Current notices top out at Level 2 for circulating poliovirus (updated March 2026 to include Laos and Namibia) and select Level 1 alerts for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, and global measles. These reflect ongoing but contained transmission patterns monitored by CDC surveillance, without the uncontrolled outbreaks or novel pathogens that historically trigger Level 4 status, such as peak COVID-19 surges. No recent model runs, case thresholds, or official CDC/NOAA-style escalations point to conditions that would meet Level 4 criteria—extreme risk without mitigation options—before December 31. Traders appear to weigh the low baseline likelihood of rapid escalation against routine seasonal and endemic activity, with upcoming surveillance updates unlikely to shift this assessment absent a major emergence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,968
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 12¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" telah menghasilkan $72K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 19, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.