Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources converge on a highest temperature near 92–94°F for Austin on October 14, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge and southerly flow advecting warm, humid air from the Gulf. Afternoon instability supports scattered thunderstorms with a 30–40% chance, which could briefly cap the peak through cloud cover or outflow while still allowing readings in the low-to-mid 90s under mostly sunny conditions. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 94–95°F and 92–93°F outcomes. A stronger cold front remains several days away, so near-term guidance shows limited downside risk below 90°F and only modest upside potential above 95°F absent a stronger ridge build.