**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Toronto for October 14 centers on milder outcomes, with market-implied odds at 50% for 16°C or higher.** Official Environment Canada guidance and supporting model runs indicate a daytime high near 19°C followed by a nighttime low around 9°C under mostly cloudy skies and northwesterly flow after a frontal passage, consistent with mid-October climatology where average lows hover near 8°C. Recent GFS and regional model consensus shows limited overnight radiative cooling due to cloud cover and winds of 10–20 km/h, keeping minima from dropping sharply. Short-range forecast updates through October 13–14 will refine the exact minimum, with any shift toward clearer skies or weaker winds potentially supporting cooler readings near the lower-probability 6°C-or-below bin. This setup leaves meaningful uncertainty around the precise overnight low, as small changes in timing and cloud trends can alter the daily minimum by several degrees.