Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on July 11?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 11?
84-85°F 37%
82-83°F 31%
86-87°F 20%
80-81°F 7%
BARU
BARU
Jul 11, 2026
77°F or below
1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 37%
82-83°F 31%
86-87°F 20%
80-81°F 7%
BARU
BARU
Jul 11, 2026
77°F or below
$275 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$232 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$67 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$36 Vol.
37%
86-87°F
$87 Vol.
20%
88-89°F
$226 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$10 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$190 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$85 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 9, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,213Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,213Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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