Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate an overnight low for New York City on July 11 near the 70–73°F range, consistent with typical mid-July climatology where average lows hover around 71°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 66–75°F bands because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture can alter radiational cooling by a few degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Recent model runs show modest northeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions that limit extreme cooling or warming, keeping probabilities spread across adjacent brackets. No major atmospheric shifts such as strong frontal passages or anomalous humidity have emerged in the past 48 hours to narrow the range further. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.