Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Istanbul's July 4 maximum will likely settle near 25–27°C, driven by northerly flow and increased cloud cover moderating peak heating rather than the typical July high-pressure ridge. Sea-breeze effects off the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with modest humidity around 50–60%, further cap daytime warming below seasonal normals of 27–29°C. Resolution hinges on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations at central stations, with traders weighting latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing slight cooling trends over the prior 48 hours. Model spread remains modest but widens with any shift in wind direction or timing of frontal passage.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 4?
25°C 39%
26°C 35%
24°C 12%
27°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Jul 4, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
12%
25°C
39%
26°C
35%
27°C
12%
28°C
6%
29°C or higher
1%
25°C 39%
26°C 35%
24°C 12%
27°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Jul 4, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$157 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$81 Vol.
12%
25°C
$765 Vol.
39%
26°C
$95 Vol.
35%
27°C
$55 Vol.
12%
28°C
$78 Vol.
6%
29°C or higher
$77 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Istanbul's July 4 maximum will likely settle near 25–27°C, driven by northerly flow and increased cloud cover moderating peak heating rather than the typical July high-pressure ridge. Sea-breeze effects off the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with modest humidity around 50–60%, further cap daytime warming below seasonal normals of 27–29°C. Resolution hinges on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations at central stations, with traders weighting latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing slight cooling trends over the prior 48 hours. Model spread remains modest but widens with any shift in wind direction or timing of frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,409Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Istanbul's July 4 maximum will likely settle near 25–27°C, driven by northerly flow and increased cloud cover moderating peak heating rather than the typical July high-pressure ridge. Sea-breeze effects off the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with modest humidity around 50–60%, further cap daytime warming below seasonal normals of 27–29°C. Resolution hinges on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations at central stations, with traders weighting latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing slight cooling trends over the prior 48 hours. Model spread remains modest but widens with any shift in wind direction or timing of frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,409Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Istanbul's July 4 maximum will likely settle near 25–27°C, driven by northerly flow and increased cloud cover moderating peak heating rather than the typical July high-pressure ridge. Sea-breeze effects off the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with modest humidity around 50–60%, further cap daytime warming below seasonal normals of 27–29°C. Resolution hinges on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations at central stations, with traders weighting latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing slight cooling trends over the prior 48 hours. Model spread remains modest but widens with any shift in wind direction or timing of frontal passage.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan