Recent short-range forecast guidance for Mexico City on October 1 shows daytime maxima clustered near 24–25 °C, with light showers or overcast skies expected to limit insolation and cap afternoon peaks. Model consensus points to modest southwesterly flow, dew points in the low teens, and scattered precipitation that reduces the chance of stronger surface heating, while the city’s high elevation and urban heat-island effects provide a narrow range around these values. Divergence among runs—some drier solutions reaching 26 °C versus wetter ones holding near 23 °C—explains the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities between 24 °C and 25 °C. Updated model outputs and official observations through the morning of October 1 will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.