Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %). Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Paris on August 21?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?
23°C 52%
24°C 23%
22°C 14%
21°C 6%
BARU
$11,686 Vol.
BARU
$11,686 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
6%
22°C
14%
23°C
52%
24°C
23%
25°C
5%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 52%
24°C 23%
22°C 14%
21°C 6%
BARU
$11,686 Vol.
BARU
$11,686 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
$901 Vol.
2%
21°C
$573 Vol.
6%
22°C
$643 Vol.
14%
23°C
$3,927 Vol.
52%
24°C
$1,172 Vol.
23%
25°C
$492 Vol.
5%
26°C
$606 Vol.
2%
27°C
$398 Vol.
1%
28°C
$445 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,268 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %).
Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$11,686Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %).
Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,686Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %). Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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