Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate sunny conditions and light southwest to west winds for San Francisco on September 29, supporting a daily high near 77°F as the primary driver behind market-implied odds favoring the 76–79°F range. Persistent high pressure and minimal marine layer influence have allowed daytime heating to exceed seasonal averages of about 71°F, with model consensus showing limited fog intrusion and dew points in the low-to-mid 50s that favor modest warming. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of leading outcomes against typical coastal variability from on-shore flow and the chance of slightly stronger afternoon winds, which could cap or boost readings by a degree or two. Updated model runs and official briefings from the NWS Monterey office remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in sentiment.