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icon for Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?
Politik·Mojtaba

Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?

icon for Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?
Politik·Mojtaba

Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?

$23,608,557 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$23,608,557 Vol.

Polymarket

August 22

$58,081 Vol.

<1%

August 31

$1,176,985 Vol.

1%

September 30

$464,388 Vol.

5%

October 31

$13,961 Vol.

8%

November 30

$12,278 Vol.

11%

31 Desember

$4,033,476 Vol.

17%

June 30, 2027

$241,196 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes during the Iran war, triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process. The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, as the new supreme leader in a rapid vote that concluded by March 9. An interim three-person council comprising the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric managed day-to-day authority during the transition. Ongoing military confrontation, internal cohesion concerns, and the need to project continuity amid wartime pressures shaped the timeline and outcome. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei remains in office, with reports noting his low public profile and focus on military preparations. Trader consensus on markets tied to leadership change by mid-2026 or later dates reflected the decisive impact of these verified events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,608,557
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes during the Iran war, triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process. The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, as the new supreme leader in a rapid vote that concluded by March 9. An interim three-person council comprising the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric managed day-to-day authority during the transition. Ongoing military confrontation, internal cohesion concerns, and the need to project continuity amid wartime pressures shaped the timeline and outcome. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei remains in office, with reports noting his low public profile and focus on military preparations. Trader consensus on markets tied to leadership change by mid-2026 or later dates reflected the decisive impact of these verified events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,608,557
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Terkait

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

26%
icon for Apakah Mojtaba Khamenei akan menjadi kepala negara di Iran pada akhir tahun 2026?

Apakah Mojtaba Khamenei akan menjadi kepala negara di Iran pada akhir tahun 2026?

82%
Ya
icon for Akankah Reza Pahlavi memimpin Iran pada tahun 2026?

Akankah Reza Pahlavi memimpin Iran pada tahun 2026?

3%
Ya

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 14 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "June 30, 2027" di 26%, diikuti oleh "31 Desember" di 17%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 26¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" telah menghasilkan $23.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 8, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?," jelajahi 14 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" adalah "June 30, 2027" di 26%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "31 Desember" di 17%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Perubahan kepemimpinan Iran oleh...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.