Ongoing implementation challenges in the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement continue to anchor trader expectations against full normalization before 2027. Disagreements persist over sequencing, with Israel conditioning further withdrawals on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in southern zones, while Beirut prioritizes Israeli pullbacks first. Recent rounds of talks, including the planned October 2026 session in Florida, have shown limited breakthroughs amid Hezbollah's retained capabilities and Israeli maintenance of buffer areas. These structural barriers, reinforced by regional security dynamics and the short remaining timeline, underpin the strong market consensus reflected in current pricing. Late diplomatic acceleration or verified disarmament steps could still shift probabilities within the window.