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Dunia·Israel

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

icon for Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Dunia·Israel

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

23% peluang
Polymarket

$153,148 Vol.

23% peluang
Polymarket

$153,148 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon commencing on April 14, 2026—the first since 1993—and a fragile ceasefire initiated April 16 and extended into May, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on full normalization before 2027, pricing "No" at 77.5%. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam explicitly rejected normalization on May 6, framing negotiations as aimed at peace and stability rather than diplomatic ties, amid demands for Hezbollah disarmament that remain unmet. Ongoing border violations, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as recently as May 12 and Hezbollah threats, underscore persistent hostilities. Hezbollah's influence, territorial disputes, and Lebanon's domestic opposition represent formidable barriers to a comprehensive treaty, with talks limited to truce monitoring and border demarcation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$153,148
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon commencing on April 14, 2026—the first since 1993—and a fragile ceasefire initiated April 16 and extended into May, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on full normalization before 2027, pricing "No" at 77.5%. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam explicitly rejected normalization on May 6, framing negotiations as aimed at peace and stability rather than diplomatic ties, amid demands for Hezbollah disarmament that remain unmet. Ongoing border violations, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as recently as May 12 and Hezbollah threats, underscore persistent hostilities. Hezbollah's influence, territorial disputes, and Lebanon's domestic opposition represent formidable barriers to a comprehensive treaty, with talks limited to truce monitoring and border demarcation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$153,148
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 23% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 23¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 23% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $153.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?" adalah 23% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 23% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.