Tensions between Israel and Turkey center on competing influence in post-Assad Syria, where Israel conducted airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in August 2026 to block potential Turkish deployments it views as a security threat. Ankara and Damascus denied such plans, and the incident prompted sharp rhetoric, Interpol red notice requests against Israeli officials, and Israeli preparations for legal action against Turkish President Erdogan over Kurdish issues and Hamas ties. Despite these moves, both governments have signaled restraint, with Erdogan stating Turkey seeks no confrontation and analysts citing US mediation, Turkey’s NATO status, and shared American alliances as deterrents. Recent de-escalation signals and the absence of further incidents support trader consensus that a direct military clash remains unlikely before 2027.