South Korea’s sitting President Lee Jae-myung receives constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from most criminal prosecution during his term, which runs through 2030. Pre-presidency cases involving election-law violations and corruption allegations have been suspended or indefinitely postponed by courts following his June 2025 election victory, with proceedings expected to resume only after he leaves office. No new arrest warrants, legislative actions, or qualifying events have emerged in 2026 to override this protection. Traders therefore assign a 91.7 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbent presidents absent extraordinary circumstances such as insurrection or treason charges.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
8% peluang
$538,606 Vol.
$538,606 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% peluang
$538,606 Vol.
$538,606 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korea’s sitting President Lee Jae-myung receives constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from most criminal prosecution during his term, which runs through 2030. Pre-presidency cases involving election-law violations and corruption allegations have been suspended or indefinitely postponed by courts following his June 2025 election victory, with proceedings expected to resume only after he leaves office. No new arrest warrants, legislative actions, or qualifying events have emerged in 2026 to override this protection. Traders therefore assign a 91.7 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbent presidents absent extraordinary circumstances such as insurrection or treason charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$538,606Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korea’s sitting President Lee Jae-myung receives constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from most criminal prosecution during his term, which runs through 2030. Pre-presidency cases involving election-law violations and corruption allegations have been suspended or indefinitely postponed by courts following his June 2025 election victory, with proceedings expected to resume only after he leaves office. No new arrest warrants, legislative actions, or qualifying events have emerged in 2026 to override this protection. Traders therefore assign a 91.7 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbent presidents absent extraordinary circumstances such as insurrection or treason charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$538,606Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korea’s sitting President Lee Jae-myung receives constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from most criminal prosecution during his term, which runs through 2030. Pre-presidency cases involving election-law violations and corruption allegations have been suspended or indefinitely postponed by courts following his June 2025 election victory, with proceedings expected to resume only after he leaves office. No new arrest warrants, legislative actions, or qualifying events have emerged in 2026 to override this protection. Traders therefore assign a 91.7 percent implied probability that Lee will not face arrest before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbent presidents absent extraordinary circumstances such as insurrection or treason charges.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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