**President Lee Jae-myung of South Korea, elected in June 2025 following the Constitutional Court’s upholding of Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, maintains a stable position with the Democratic Party holding a supermajority in the National Assembly.** This structural advantage makes passage of any impeachment motion—requiring a two-thirds legislative vote—highly improbable before the 2028 parliamentary elections. A June 2026 citizen petition seeking Lee’s impeachment collected over 100,000 signatures and advanced to committee review, yet analysts across outlets noted it stood no realistic chance of reaching a plenary vote or succeeding due to the ruling party’s control. Lee’s approval ratings remained in the 60 percent range for most of his first year before a modest dip after June 2026 local elections amid ballot-distribution controversies, but no new criminal convictions, major scandals, or legislative defections have emerged to alter the balance. His administration has emphasized pragmatic governance, budget priorities, and diplomatic outreach, including recent proposals for North Korea dialogue, further reducing immediate political friction. Traders assign a 93.8 percent probability to “No” because these institutional and electoral realities create formidable barriers, with resolution before 2027 dependent on developments that have not materialized in the past year.