Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and local forecasts points to a minimum temperature near 11–13°C in Buenos Aires on October 10, driven by persistent southerly flow and cloud cover associated with a weak frontal system. This setup limits nighttime radiative cooling while preventing significant warm advection from the north. The near-even market odds between sub-7°C and 17°C+ outcomes reflect uncertainty in the precise strength and timing of any reinforcing cold air surge versus moderating high pressure building from the east, both of which can shift overnight lows by several degrees. Key variables include evolving sea-level pressure gradients, boundary-layer moisture, and cloud persistence, with updated runs from regional and global models expected to narrow the range ahead of resolution. Historical October minima in the city average near 10–12°C, underscoring the sensitivity of this spring transition period.