**Current ensemble forecasts for Warsaw show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for October 11, driving the near-even market split between a 3°C-or-below outcome and 13°C-or-higher.** Short-range models indicate potential radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds could allow lows near 8–11°C, consistent with typical early-October climatology, while stronger warm advection or increased cloud cover might limit cooling. Key variables include the exact timing of any frontal passage, boundary-layer mixing, and dew-point depressions that influence frost risk or warmer maritime air intrusion. Updated runs from agencies like ECMWF and GFS will likely narrow this range as the event approaches within 48 hours.