Current forecast consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a minimum temperature near 11°C in Warsaw on October 10, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and high humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market's tight odds between 10°C (54%) and 9°C (46.5%), as any brief clearing or slight wind shift could allow further cooling toward 9°C or below. October climatology shows typical daily lows around 8–9°C, but this episode's mild advection and 100% cloud cover have kept readings elevated, with official station data from Chopin Airport expected to finalize the exact minimum by midnight.