The April 2026 public breakup, confirmed by Megan Thee Stallion in statements to Billboard and other outlets citing alleged infidelity and the need for trust, fidelity, and respect, remains the dominant factor behind the 55.7% market-implied probability of no engagement by year-end. The roughly nine-month relationship, which went public in July 2025 with red-carpet appearances and included her February 2026 comments about “manifesting” an engagement, ended amid Instagram accusations of cheating and mood swings. As of mid-August 2026, no verified reconciliation or renewed joint appearances have surfaced, while recent sightings of Thompson with others have reinforced trader consensus that the relationship has concluded. With limited time left and no major catalysts on the horizon, the market reflects the current confirmed status over earlier romantic speculation.