Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser faces Democrat Rachel Wallace in Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19 that backed the Republican presidential ticket by double digits in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican following the May 2026 primaries, reflecting Meuser's established fundraising edge and the district's consistent partisan lean. Prediction markets price a Democratic victory below 3 percent while spreading probability across Republican margin bins from 20-50 points, indicating trader consensus that the outcome will be decided by a comfortable rather than razor-thin Republican advantage. Limited recent polling, low Democratic small-donor momentum, and absence of major scandals or national-wave signals have kept the race stable since the primaries, with separation likely to emerge only from unexpected turnout shifts or late-cycle developments in the final weeks before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
PA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 0-10% 37%
Republican 50%+ 37%
Republican 25-30% 36%
Republican 45-50% 34%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 50%+
37%
Republican 45-50%
34%
Republican 40-45%
32%
Republican 35-40%
27%
Republican 30-35%
31%
Republican 25-30%
36%
Republican 20-25%
30%
Republican 10-20%
29%
Republican 0-10%
37%
Democrat Wins
33%
Republican 0-10% 37%
Republican 50%+ 37%
Republican 25-30% 36%
Republican 45-50% 34%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 50%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 45-50%
$0 Vol.
34%
Republican 40-45%
$0 Vol.
32%
Republican 35-40%
$0 Vol.
27%
Republican 30-35%
$0 Vol.
31%
Republican 25-30%
$0 Vol.
36%
Republican 20-25%
$0 Vol.
30%
Republican 10-20%
$0 Vol.
29%
Republican 0-10%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat Wins
$0 Vol.
33%
The 2026 PA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser faces Democrat Rachel Wallace in Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19 that backed the Republican presidential ticket by double digits in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican following the May 2026 primaries, reflecting Meuser's established fundraising edge and the district's consistent partisan lean. Prediction markets price a Democratic victory below 3 percent while spreading probability across Republican margin bins from 20-50 points, indicating trader consensus that the outcome will be decided by a comfortable rather than razor-thin Republican advantage. Limited recent polling, low Democratic small-donor momentum, and absence of major scandals or national-wave signals have kept the race stable since the primaries, with separation likely to emerge only from unexpected turnout shifts or late-cycle developments in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 PA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 PA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser faces Democrat Rachel Wallace in Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19 that backed the Republican presidential ticket by double digits in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican following the May 2026 primaries, reflecting Meuser's established fundraising edge and the district's consistent partisan lean. Prediction markets price a Democratic victory below 3 percent while spreading probability across Republican margin bins from 20-50 points, indicating trader consensus that the outcome will be decided by a comfortable rather than razor-thin Republican advantage. Limited recent polling, low Democratic small-donor momentum, and absence of major scandals or national-wave signals have kept the race stable since the primaries, with separation likely to emerge only from unexpected turnout shifts or late-cycle developments in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 PA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser faces Democrat Rachel Wallace in Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19 that backed the Republican presidential ticket by double digits in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican following the May 2026 primaries, reflecting Meuser's established fundraising edge and the district's consistent partisan lean. Prediction markets price a Democratic victory below 3 percent while spreading probability across Republican margin bins from 20-50 points, indicating trader consensus that the outcome will be decided by a comfortable rather than razor-thin Republican advantage. Limited recent polling, low Democratic small-donor momentum, and absence of major scandals or national-wave signals have kept the race stable since the primaries, with separation likely to emerge only from unexpected turnout shifts or late-cycle developments in the final weeks before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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