SpaceX's post-IPO share-price volatility and revenue trajectory anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market cap, with outcomes clustered near 47 percent across the $1.00–2.25 trillion bins. The June 2026 offering priced near $1.75 trillion before a surge above $2 trillion gave way to a July retracement toward $1.5 trillion amid 50-times forward sales multiples and ongoing cash burn. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship flight cadence, and AI-compute revenue from xAI partnerships, all of which could shift the stock toward either the sub-$1.25 trillion or $2 trillion-plus resolution thresholds depending on execution in the next eight weeks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight balance between execution risk and growth optionality.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<$1.00T 48%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$1.50-$1.75T 48%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
48%
$1.75-$2.00T
47%
$2.00-$2.25T
48%
$2.25T+
48%
<$1.00T 48%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$1.50-$1.75T 48%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
47%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
48%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share-price volatility and revenue trajectory anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market cap, with outcomes clustered near 47 percent across the $1.00–2.25 trillion bins. The June 2026 offering priced near $1.75 trillion before a surge above $2 trillion gave way to a July retracement toward $1.5 trillion amid 50-times forward sales multiples and ongoing cash burn. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship flight cadence, and AI-compute revenue from xAI partnerships, all of which could shift the stock toward either the sub-$1.25 trillion or $2 trillion-plus resolution thresholds depending on execution in the next eight weeks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight balance between execution risk and growth optionality.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share-price volatility and revenue trajectory anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market cap, with outcomes clustered near 47 percent across the $1.00–2.25 trillion bins. The June 2026 offering priced near $1.75 trillion before a surge above $2 trillion gave way to a July retracement toward $1.5 trillion amid 50-times forward sales multiples and ongoing cash burn. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship flight cadence, and AI-compute revenue from xAI partnerships, all of which could shift the stock toward either the sub-$1.25 trillion or $2 trillion-plus resolution thresholds depending on execution in the next eight weeks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight balance between execution risk and growth optionality.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share-price volatility and revenue trajectory anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market cap, with outcomes clustered near 47 percent across the $1.00–2.25 trillion bins. The June 2026 offering priced near $1.75 trillion before a surge above $2 trillion gave way to a July retracement toward $1.5 trillion amid 50-times forward sales multiples and ongoing cash burn. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship flight cadence, and AI-compute revenue from xAI partnerships, all of which could shift the stock toward either the sub-$1.25 trillion or $2 trillion-plus resolution thresholds depending on execution in the next eight weeks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight balance between execution risk and growth optionality.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
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