**Trader sentiment on the Squirtle (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 039) price market reflects a tight contest around the $28.23 ungraded threshold on Collectr, with “Down” holding a modest 54.5% edge.** The card’s recent market price has settled near or slightly below this level after a broader correction in Pokémon TCG promos, driven by increased supply entering the market and softening demand for the First Partner Series and related Mega Evolution Black Star Promos. Recent sales data show steady downward pressure, with similar cards like the Bulbasaur and Charmander variants also easing from earlier peaks in the $40–50 range toward the low $30s or below. This positioning creates balance because the ungraded price remains close enough to the strike that short-term fluctuations or renewed collector interest could still push it either way before August 31. Key swing factors include any late-August Pokémon TCG announcements, new set hype, or broader pop-culture momentum that might lift secondary-market demand, versus continued supply-driven softness seen across promo cards in recent weeks. With resolution just two weeks away, daily Collectr updates and any visible sales velocity shifts will likely dictate final trader positioning.