Persistent US-Iran naval tensions since late February have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily vessel counts in single digits against a normal 60-plus average. This sustained blockade, reinforced by May naval skirmishes and over 1,550 stranded vessels, underpins traders’ 72.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by end-June. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and limited diplomatic progress continue to deter operators, while oil-market volatility reflects the supply-chain risks. Key near-term catalysts include any verified de-escalation agreements or expanded escorted convoys, though recent assessments point to recovery timelines extending well into late 2026 absent major breakthroughs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$6,462,379 Vol.
$6,462,379 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$6,462,379 Vol.
$6,462,379 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran naval tensions since late February have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily vessel counts in single digits against a normal 60-plus average. This sustained blockade, reinforced by May naval skirmishes and over 1,550 stranded vessels, underpins traders’ 72.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by end-June. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and limited diplomatic progress continue to deter operators, while oil-market volatility reflects the supply-chain risks. Key near-term catalysts include any verified de-escalation agreements or expanded escorted convoys, though recent assessments point to recovery timelines extending well into late 2026 absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,462,379Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran naval tensions since late February have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily vessel counts in single digits against a normal 60-plus average. This sustained blockade, reinforced by May naval skirmishes and over 1,550 stranded vessels, underpins traders’ 72.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by end-June. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and limited diplomatic progress continue to deter operators, while oil-market volatility reflects the supply-chain risks. Key near-term catalysts include any verified de-escalation agreements or expanded escorted convoys, though recent assessments point to recovery timelines extending well into late 2026 absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$6,462,379Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran naval tensions since late February have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily vessel counts in single digits against a normal 60-plus average. This sustained blockade, reinforced by May naval skirmishes and over 1,550 stranded vessels, underpins traders’ 72.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by end-June. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and limited diplomatic progress continue to deter operators, while oil-market volatility reflects the supply-chain risks. Key near-term catalysts include any verified de-escalation agreements or expanded escorted convoys, though recent assessments point to recovery timelines extending well into late 2026 absent major breakthroughs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan