**Aging conservative justices Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76) remain the primary candidates for any U.S. Supreme Court vacancy, yet both have signaled they intend to continue serving at least through 2026.** No retirements have been announced, and recent reporting notes the absence of serious public health concerns or formal plans to step down. Speculation around Alito’s potential departure earlier in the year, including a quickly retracted news report and book-release timing, failed to produce confirmation and has since subsided. President Trump maintains a short list of possible nominees, and Senate Republicans have indicated readiness to move quickly on any opening before the November midterms, but these preparations reflect contingency planning rather than an expected vacancy. With the court’s other members younger and no liberal justices positioned to retire, trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability of no vacancy aligns with the lack of confirmed developments that would trigger a seat opening before year-end.