Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he plans to serve another term has anchored trader expectations against a Supreme Court vacancy this year. The 76-year-old justice directly addressed earlier speculation stemming from a June reporting error, aligning with the absence of retirement signals from the court’s other eight members, including 78-year-old Clarence Thomas. No justice has disclosed health concerns or filed formal notices that would trigger an opening before December 31. The full nine-member bench remains intact amid the 2025-2026 term, and Senate dynamics around the November midterms have not prompted any accelerated departures. Historical base rates for annual vacancies hover near 15-20 percent, yet current conditions lack the catalysts—such as confirmed retirements or sudden vacancies—that would shift the 81 percent implied probability on “No.”