Utah's 3rd Congressional District maintains a pronounced Republican advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 93.5% Republican consensus. The seat's partisan lean stems from its composition across southern and eastern Utah counties, where the prior presidential results showed a 41-point Republican margin, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Incumbent Celeste Maloy consolidated the nomination by defeating Phil Lyman in the June 23 Republican primary with 65.7% of the vote, providing organizational momentum and reducing intra-party risk. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment favoring the majority party. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in suburban pockets, though historical base rates in comparable districts suggest such reversals are uncommon.
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UT-03 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
BARU
BARU
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$4,448 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$2,411 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd Congressional District maintains a pronounced Republican advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 93.5% Republican consensus. The seat's partisan lean stems from its composition across southern and eastern Utah counties, where the prior presidential results showed a 41-point Republican margin, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Incumbent Celeste Maloy consolidated the nomination by defeating Phil Lyman in the June 23 Republican primary with 65.7% of the vote, providing organizational momentum and reducing intra-party risk. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment favoring the majority party. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in suburban pockets, though historical base rates in comparable districts suggest such reversals are uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$6,858Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd Congressional District maintains a pronounced Republican advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 93.5% Republican consensus. The seat's partisan lean stems from its composition across southern and eastern Utah counties, where the prior presidential results showed a 41-point Republican margin, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Incumbent Celeste Maloy consolidated the nomination by defeating Phil Lyman in the June 23 Republican primary with 65.7% of the vote, providing organizational momentum and reducing intra-party risk. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment favoring the majority party. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in suburban pockets, though historical base rates in comparable districts suggest such reversals are uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,858Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 3rd Congressional District maintains a pronounced Republican advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market's 93.5% Republican consensus. The seat's partisan lean stems from its composition across southern and eastern Utah counties, where the prior presidential results showed a 41-point Republican margin, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid R rating and R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index. Incumbent Celeste Maloy consolidated the nomination by defeating Phil Lyman in the June 23 Republican primary with 65.7% of the vote, providing organizational momentum and reducing intra-party risk. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment favoring the majority party. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in suburban pockets, though historical base rates in comparable districts suggest such reversals are uncommon.
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