Texas's 22nd congressional district features an open seat after incumbent Republican Troy Nehls retired ahead of the 2026 cycle. Trever Nehls secured the Republican nomination in the March primary by wide margins across key counties, benefiting from strong name recognition and alignment with the district's conservative voter base in portions of Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties following recent redistricting. The Democratic nominee, Marquette Greene-Scott, faces a substantial fundraising and organizational gap. These structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary drama underpin the Republican Party's 92.5% implied probability. A national Democratic surge, late-cycle scandal, or sharply higher minority turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require departures from recent voting patterns in this solidly Republican-leaning seat.
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TX-22 House Election Winner
$15,511 Vol.
$15,511 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$15,511 Vol.
$15,511 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,922 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 22nd congressional district features an open seat after incumbent Republican Troy Nehls retired ahead of the 2026 cycle. Trever Nehls secured the Republican nomination in the March primary by wide margins across key counties, benefiting from strong name recognition and alignment with the district's conservative voter base in portions of Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties following recent redistricting. The Democratic nominee, Marquette Greene-Scott, faces a substantial fundraising and organizational gap. These structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary drama underpin the Republican Party's 92.5% implied probability. A national Democratic surge, late-cycle scandal, or sharply higher minority turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require departures from recent voting patterns in this solidly Republican-leaning seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$15,511Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 22nd congressional district features an open seat after incumbent Republican Troy Nehls retired ahead of the 2026 cycle. Trever Nehls secured the Republican nomination in the March primary by wide margins across key counties, benefiting from strong name recognition and alignment with the district's conservative voter base in portions of Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties following recent redistricting. The Democratic nominee, Marquette Greene-Scott, faces a substantial fundraising and organizational gap. These structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary drama underpin the Republican Party's 92.5% implied probability. A national Democratic surge, late-cycle scandal, or sharply higher minority turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require departures from recent voting patterns in this solidly Republican-leaning seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,511Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 22nd congressional district features an open seat after incumbent Republican Troy Nehls retired ahead of the 2026 cycle. Trever Nehls secured the Republican nomination in the March primary by wide margins across key counties, benefiting from strong name recognition and alignment with the district's conservative voter base in portions of Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties following recent redistricting. The Democratic nominee, Marquette Greene-Scott, faces a substantial fundraising and organizational gap. These structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary drama underpin the Republican Party's 92.5% implied probability. A national Democratic surge, late-cycle scandal, or sharply higher minority turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require departures from recent voting patterns in this solidly Republican-leaning seat.
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