Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election by the European Parliament in July 2024 for a second term running through 2029 underpins the strong trader consensus against her departure in 2026. Centrist majorities in the Parliament have repeatedly backed her leadership, most recently defeating a no-confidence motion in January 2026. She continues to lead diplomatic initiatives, including addresses at Davos and summits on defense and trade in early 2026, while facing criticism over centralized decision-making and regulatory priorities from some member states and opposition groups. These pressures have not produced viable procedural challenges or shifts in parliamentary support sufficient to alter her position before the end of the year.