Sweden’s post-election government formation remains deadlocked after the September 13, 2026 parliamentary vote produced a narrow centre-left majority of 176 seats to 173 for the Tidö parties. Speaker Andreas Norlén has seen two prime-ministerial proposals rejected—Magdalena Andersson and Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist—leaving Ulf Kristersson with an exploratory mandate extended into mid-November. The Centre Party’s refusal to serve alongside the Left Party and the Left’s insistence on cabinet seats continue to block a viable coalition, yet recent signals, including the Sweden Democrats dropping cabinet demands and ongoing cross-bloc talks, indicate parties are still seeking a tolerated government before the constitutional limit of four failed votes is reached. With only two rejections recorded and December 31 resolution approaching, traders assign an 80.5% probability that no snap election is formally called this year.