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Ekonomi·Perumahan

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
Ekonomi·Perumahan

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

Sep 30

Sep 30

<$1.176M 53%

$1.176M - $1.198M 35%

$1.220M - $1.242M 10.5%

$1.242M - $1.264M 6.1%

Polymarket

$36,479 Vol.

<$1.176M 53%

$1.176M - $1.198M 35%

$1.220M - $1.242M 10.5%

$1.242M - $1.264M 6.1%

Polymarket

$36,479 Vol.

<$1.176M

$14,452 Vol.

53%

$1.176M - $1.198M

$13,697 Vol.

35%

$1.198M - $1.220M

$1,816 Vol.

5%

$1.220M - $1.242M

$1,808 Vol.

7%

$1.242M - $1.264M

$2,731 Vol.

6%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$904 Vol.

<1%

$1.284M+

$1,072 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent upward momentum in San Francisco metro home values, fueled by tight inventory, low days on market, and AI-driven demand from the tech sector, has positioned the market-implied odds toward the sub-$1.198 million range as the consensus outcome by September 30. Zillow data through July showed average values near $1.416 million with 11.6% year-over-year gains, while Redfin reports noted median sale prices around $1.7 million in mid-2026 amid constrained supply and faster transaction times. Easing mortgage rates and broader Bay Area stabilization at elevated levels—following 2022 peaks—support the leading probabilities, though seasonal factors and potential moderation in sales velocity could influence the final Zillow or Redfin index reading. Trader positioning reflects these fundamentals, with limited room for sharp upside absent stronger economic releases or rate cuts before quarter-end.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$36,479
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent upward momentum in San Francisco metro home values, fueled by tight inventory, low days on market, and AI-driven demand from the tech sector, has positioned the market-implied odds toward the sub-$1.198 million range as the consensus outcome by September 30. Zillow data through July showed average values near $1.416 million with 11.6% year-over-year gains, while Redfin reports noted median sale prices around $1.7 million in mid-2026 amid constrained supply and faster transaction times. Easing mortgage rates and broader Bay Area stabilization at elevated levels—following 2022 peaks—support the leading probabilities, though seasonal factors and potential moderation in sales velocity could influence the final Zillow or Redfin index reading. Trader positioning reflects these fundamentals, with limited room for sharp upside absent stronger economic releases or rate cuts before quarter-end.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$36,479
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "<$1.176M" di 53%, diikuti oleh "$1.176M - $1.198M" di 35%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 53¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 53% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" telah menghasilkan $36.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" adalah "<$1.176M" di 53%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 53% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "$1.176M - $1.198M" di 35%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.