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Ekonomi·Parcl

What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?
Ekonomi·Parcl

What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?

Sep 30

Sep 30

<$419K 55.3%

$419K - $426K 31.5%

$426K - $433K 4.4%

$433K - $440K 2.1%

Polymarket

$54,055 Vol.

<$419K 55.3%

$419K - $426K 31.5%

$426K - $433K 4.4%

$433K - $440K 2.1%

Polymarket

$54,055 Vol.

<$419K

$16,710 Vol.

55%

$419K - $426K

$11,032 Vol.

32%

$426K - $433K

$5,739 Vol.

4%

$433K - $440K

$12,353 Vol.

2%

$440K - $447K

$3,627 Vol.

<1%

$447K - $454K

$4,053 Vol.

<1%

$454K+

$542 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Recent softening in U.S. home prices, driven by persistent 6.5% mortgage rates and rising inventory, has anchored trader consensus around the lower outcome bins for the September 30 median home value. Zillow’s typical U.S. home value stood at $371,774 through July 31, 2026, with 1% year-over-year growth, while Census Bureau and Redfin median sale prices ranged from $408,776 to $410,700 in Q2. NAR data showed a July median near $440,600 amid 19 consecutive weeks of flat or declining year-over-year listing prices. This price moderation, alongside JPMorgan’s flat 2026 outlook, explains the 55.3% implied probability on values below $419,000 and 31.5% on the $419,000–$426,000 range. Key near-term catalysts include the August 25 FHFA release and September FOMC meeting, which could influence final-quarter momentum.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Volume
$54,055
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Recent softening in U.S. home prices, driven by persistent 6.5% mortgage rates and rising inventory, has anchored trader consensus around the lower outcome bins for the September 30 median home value. Zillow’s typical U.S. home value stood at $371,774 through July 31, 2026, with 1% year-over-year growth, while Census Bureau and Redfin median sale prices ranged from $408,776 to $410,700 in Q2. NAR data showed a July median near $440,600 amid 19 consecutive weeks of flat or declining year-over-year listing prices. This price moderation, alongside JPMorgan’s flat 2026 outlook, explains the 55.3% implied probability on values below $419,000 and 31.5% on the $419,000–$426,000 range. Key near-term catalysts include the August 25 FHFA release and September FOMC meeting, which could influence final-quarter momentum.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Volume
$54,055
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "<$419K" di 55%, diikuti oleh "$419K - $426K" di 32%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 55¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 55% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?" telah menghasilkan $54.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?" adalah "<$419K" di 55%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 55% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "$419K - $426K" di 32%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.