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icon for Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?
Teknologi·AI

Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?

icon for Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?
Teknologi·AI

Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$1,556,684 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,556,684 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$405,873 Vol.

11%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$13,187 Vol.

10%

icon for xAI

xAI

$555,910 Vol.

6%

icon for Meta

Meta

$15,360 Vol.

5%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$3,154 Vol.

4%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$10,160 Vol.

3%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$274,985 Vol.

2%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$10,627 Vol.

2%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$3,056 Vol.

1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$6,402 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has dominated the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its April 16, 2026 launch, securing the top Arena Elo score through superior reasoning, agentic coding, and benchmark performance on evaluations like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, where it trails OpenAI's GPT-5.5 by just 3 points at 57 versus 60. This recent edge—bolstered by stability over GPT-5.5's variability and Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths—drives trader consensus favoring Anthropic to hold the #1 spot through June 30, absent surprise releases. Competitive dynamics remain tight among frontier large language models, with no confirmed launches from rivals before the deadline, though unannounced previews or dev conferences could shift odds rapidly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,556,684
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has dominated the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its April 16, 2026 launch, securing the top Arena Elo score through superior reasoning, agentic coding, and benchmark performance on evaluations like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, where it trails OpenAI's GPT-5.5 by just 3 points at 57 versus 60. This recent edge—bolstered by stability over GPT-5.5's variability and Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths—drives trader consensus favoring Anthropic to hold the #1 spot through June 30, absent surprise releases. Competitive dynamics remain tight among frontier large language models, with no confirmed launches from rivals before the deadline, though unannounced previews or dev conferences could shift odds rapidly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,556,684
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Anthropic" di 100%, diikuti oleh "OpenAI" di 11%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?" telah menghasilkan $1.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 22, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?" adalah "Anthropic" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "OpenAI" di 11%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Perusahaan mana yang akan memiliki model AI #1 pada 30 Juni?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.