Tesla’s Q2 2026 delivery outlook remains tightly clustered between 375k and 425k because Q1’s 358k shortfall left substantial inventory overhang while early April wholesale figures from Giga Shanghai showed a 36% year-over-year rebound. Traders weigh strong production capacity at Texas and Shanghai plants against softening U.S. and European EV demand, intensifying competition from legacy automakers, and inconsistent China retail registrations that dipped 10% despite export gains. The narrow spread between the top two buckets reflects uncertainty over whether May registration trackers will confirm sustained recovery or expose further weakness ahead of the early-July official report.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui400k–425k 24.9%
375k–400k 24%
475k+ 16.8%
450k–475k 16.3%
$42,973 Vol.
$42,973 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
1%
300k–325k
1%
325k–350k
4%
350k–375k
11%
375k–400k
24%
400k–425k
25%
425k–450k
15%
450k–475k
16%
475k+
17%
400k–425k 24.9%
375k–400k 24%
475k+ 16.8%
450k–475k 16.3%
$42,973 Vol.
$42,973 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
$5,330 Vol.
1%
300k–325k
$3,155 Vol.
1%
325k–350k
$3,289 Vol.
4%
350k–375k
$7,615 Vol.
11%
375k–400k
$4,088 Vol.
24%
400k–425k
$8,379 Vol.
25%
425k–450k
$4,251 Vol.
15%
450k–475k
$3,324 Vol.
16%
475k+
$3,541 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla’s Q2 2026 delivery outlook remains tightly clustered between 375k and 425k because Q1’s 358k shortfall left substantial inventory overhang while early April wholesale figures from Giga Shanghai showed a 36% year-over-year rebound. Traders weigh strong production capacity at Texas and Shanghai plants against softening U.S. and European EV demand, intensifying competition from legacy automakers, and inconsistent China retail registrations that dipped 10% despite export gains. The narrow spread between the top two buckets reflects uncertainty over whether May registration trackers will confirm sustained recovery or expose further weakness ahead of the early-July official report.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Volume
$42,973Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla’s Q2 2026 delivery outlook remains tightly clustered between 375k and 425k because Q1’s 358k shortfall left substantial inventory overhang while early April wholesale figures from Giga Shanghai showed a 36% year-over-year rebound. Traders weigh strong production capacity at Texas and Shanghai plants against softening U.S. and European EV demand, intensifying competition from legacy automakers, and inconsistent China retail registrations that dipped 10% despite export gains. The narrow spread between the top two buckets reflects uncertainty over whether May registration trackers will confirm sustained recovery or expose further weakness ahead of the early-July official report.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$42,973Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla’s Q2 2026 delivery outlook remains tightly clustered between 375k and 425k because Q1’s 358k shortfall left substantial inventory overhang while early April wholesale figures from Giga Shanghai showed a 36% year-over-year rebound. Traders weigh strong production capacity at Texas and Shanghai plants against softening U.S. and European EV demand, intensifying competition from legacy automakers, and inconsistent China retail registrations that dipped 10% despite export gains. The narrow spread between the top two buckets reflects uncertainty over whether May registration trackers will confirm sustained recovery or expose further weakness ahead of the early-July official report.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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