The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026 placed 2025 sales at $59.6 billion after two years of contraction, reflecting a modest 4% rebound driven mainly by high-end public auctions while dealer sales rose only 2% and mid-market segments stayed soft. As of mid-2026, trader consensus heavily favors “No” on a $65 billion total because the recovery remains narrow, with no broad surge in transaction volume or fresh supply visible to close the roughly 9% gap. Dealer surveys show measured optimism—43% anticipate improvement and 38% expect stability—but historical patterns and ongoing economic headwinds make sustained double-digit expansion unlikely before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include fall auction results and any shifts in collector confidence or major consignments that could accelerate momentum.