OpenAI’s recent pivot away from consumer-facing social features explains why traders assign a 62.5% implied probability against a full social network launch in 2026. After launching the Sora video-sharing app in September 2025 as a short-form, AI-generated content platform, the company shut it down in March 2026 amid declining engagement, deepfake safety issues, and regulatory pushback. Attention has since shifted to building a desktop “superapp” that unifies ChatGPT, Codex, and browser tools under product leadership changes announced in March and May 2026. While 2025 reporting confirmed early internal prototypes for an X-like feed tied to image generation, no official timeline or enterprise commitment has emerged for a standalone social network, leaving room for last-minute feature integrations in upcoming large language model releases but tilting current market consensus toward delay or abandonment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$52,197 Vol.
$52,197 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$52,197 Vol.
$52,197 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s recent pivot away from consumer-facing social features explains why traders assign a 62.5% implied probability against a full social network launch in 2026. After launching the Sora video-sharing app in September 2025 as a short-form, AI-generated content platform, the company shut it down in March 2026 amid declining engagement, deepfake safety issues, and regulatory pushback. Attention has since shifted to building a desktop “superapp” that unifies ChatGPT, Codex, and browser tools under product leadership changes announced in March and May 2026. While 2025 reporting confirmed early internal prototypes for an X-like feed tied to image generation, no official timeline or enterprise commitment has emerged for a standalone social network, leaving room for last-minute feature integrations in upcoming large language model releases but tilting current market consensus toward delay or abandonment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$52,197Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s recent pivot away from consumer-facing social features explains why traders assign a 62.5% implied probability against a full social network launch in 2026. After launching the Sora video-sharing app in September 2025 as a short-form, AI-generated content platform, the company shut it down in March 2026 amid declining engagement, deepfake safety issues, and regulatory pushback. Attention has since shifted to building a desktop “superapp” that unifies ChatGPT, Codex, and browser tools under product leadership changes announced in March and May 2026. While 2025 reporting confirmed early internal prototypes for an X-like feed tied to image generation, no official timeline or enterprise commitment has emerged for a standalone social network, leaving room for last-minute feature integrations in upcoming large language model releases but tilting current market consensus toward delay or abandonment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$52,197Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s recent pivot away from consumer-facing social features explains why traders assign a 62.5% implied probability against a full social network launch in 2026. After launching the Sora video-sharing app in September 2025 as a short-form, AI-generated content platform, the company shut it down in March 2026 amid declining engagement, deepfake safety issues, and regulatory pushback. Attention has since shifted to building a desktop “superapp” that unifies ChatGPT, Codex, and browser tools under product leadership changes announced in March and May 2026. While 2025 reporting confirmed early internal prototypes for an X-like feed tied to image generation, no official timeline or enterprise commitment has emerged for a standalone social network, leaving room for last-minute feature integrations in upcoming large language model releases but tilting current market consensus toward delay or abandonment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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