Ongoing state attorneys general litigation and the July 2026 stipulation extending the merger deadline to June 2027 represent the dominant factor behind the 71.5% market-implied probability that Paramount Skydance will not close its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition by December 31, 2026. After DOJ antitrust clearance in June, a coalition of states secured a temporary restraining order and then a binding pause, pushing any potential resolution into 2027 court proceedings with a trial slated for March. The original Q3 2026 target has been formally abandoned, and while shareholder approvals and regulatory milestones were achieved earlier, the litigation timeline now dominates trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include further court rulings on the states’ Clayton Act claims and any settlement developments that could accelerate or further defer closing.