Ongoing multistate antitrust litigation remains the dominant factor keeping the implied probability of a Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery closing by December 31, 2026, at just 28.5%. A federal judge issued a temporary pause in July amid claims the $111 billion combination would reduce studio and streaming competition, prompting Paramount Skydance to stipulate it will not consummate the deal until the court rules or June 2027 at the latest. While federal DOJ clearance arrived in June and EU approval followed with minor concessions, the state-level case introduces extended timelines and uncertainty around required divestitures or structural remedies. Traders view the ticking-fee provisions and historical precedent for media merger reviews as evidence that any resolution before year-end is improbable.