Tesla traders price a "No" outcome at 73.5% implied probability for Cybercab sales under $30,000 in 2026, driven by pilot production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026 per the Q1 earnings call, yet lacking confirmed volume ramp, consumer pricing, or regulatory approvals for its steering-wheel-free, pedal-less robotaxi design. Elon Musk reiterated sub-$30,000 targeting before 2027 in February, but historical delays—like Cybertruck price hikes and FSD unsupervised rollout slips—fuel skepticism on 2026 feasibility amid surging $25 billion capex for AI scaling and NHTSA hurdles on safety data for driverless operations. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving v15 benchmarks, and potential geographic robotaxi expansions by mid-year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla traders price a "No" outcome at 73.5% implied probability for Cybercab sales under $30,000 in 2026, driven by pilot production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026 per the Q1 earnings call, yet lacking confirmed volume ramp, consumer pricing, or regulatory approvals for its steering-wheel-free, pedal-less robotaxi design. Elon Musk reiterated sub-$30,000 targeting before 2027 in February, but historical delays—like Cybertruck price hikes and FSD unsupervised rollout slips—fuel skepticism on 2026 feasibility amid surging $25 billion capex for AI scaling and NHTSA hurdles on safety data for driverless operations. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving v15 benchmarks, and potential geographic robotaxi expansions by mid-year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$35,757Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla traders price a "No" outcome at 73.5% implied probability for Cybercab sales under $30,000 in 2026, driven by pilot production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026 per the Q1 earnings call, yet lacking confirmed volume ramp, consumer pricing, or regulatory approvals for its steering-wheel-free, pedal-less robotaxi design. Elon Musk reiterated sub-$30,000 targeting before 2027 in February, but historical delays—like Cybertruck price hikes and FSD unsupervised rollout slips—fuel skepticism on 2026 feasibility amid surging $25 billion capex for AI scaling and NHTSA hurdles on safety data for driverless operations. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving v15 benchmarks, and potential geographic robotaxi expansions by mid-year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,757Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla traders price a "No" outcome at 73.5% implied probability for Cybercab sales under $30,000 in 2026, driven by pilot production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026 per the Q1 earnings call, yet lacking confirmed volume ramp, consumer pricing, or regulatory approvals for its steering-wheel-free, pedal-less robotaxi design. Elon Musk reiterated sub-$30,000 targeting before 2027 in February, but historical delays—like Cybertruck price hikes and FSD unsupervised rollout slips—fuel skepticism on 2026 feasibility amid surging $25 billion capex for AI scaling and NHTSA hurdles on safety data for driverless operations. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving v15 benchmarks, and potential geographic robotaxi expansions by mid-year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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